There are no Cinderellas in the NBA Playoffs.
I went to Wikipedia to prove my point, and I was shocked by what I found. In this millennium, just one team below a fourth seed has made it to the Conference Finals. In other words, every year for 14 years, the entire lower half of the bracket has failed to win two rounds, with the exception of the 2013 Grizzlies. The Grizzlies were a fifth seed, and they beat the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder in the second round before getting curb stomped by the Spurs, 4-0, in the Conference Finals.
If you’re a fan of a playoff team without one of the four best records in its conference, now would be a good time to start steeling yourself for the inevitable. Enjoy the playoff games your team takes part in, and then start thinking about next year.
Or, if you’re like me and prefer to pain yourself by rationalizing why you still have a chance, read on as I break down every team I see as a potential sleeper.
Washington (East, fifth seed)
The Case For:
The Wizards’ starting lineup has only played together in 40 games. For those who aren’t mathematically inclined, that’s about half of 82, which makes it hard to rack up an impressive win total. But finally all five guys are healthy, and that lineup is killing dudes when it’s on the court together. It outscores opponents by an average of 7.4 points per 100 possessions. This performance is comparable to that of the Hawks’ starters, who boast the sixth-best starting lineup in the NBA.
In the playoffs, when starters log more minutes and coaches tighten up their rotations, having the best five-man unit matters more than ever. And while the Wizards’ win total may have fallen short of certain irrational fans’ expectations, amazingly and depressingly it is still the most the Wizards/Bullets have had since the 1978-1979 season.
The Case Against:
Head Coach Randy Scott Wittman.
The Wizards’ offensive strategy often seems to be to make things as hard on themselves as possible. John Wall’s good enough to bail the Wizards out, but it’s a constant uphill battle.
This stuff isn’t that complicated. Everyone knows threes are effective. And yet despite the Wizards putting up the ninth-best percentage from deep, they’re 27th in the league in attempts. The only teams with fewer are the Kings (dysfunctional), the Grizzlies (can’t shoot) and the Timberwolves (terrible basketball team). Factor in that no D.C. team has ever and will ever make it past the second round of the playoffs, and things become grim.
Prediction:
The Wizards beat a not-that-great opponent in the first round for the second year in a row, thanks to the blessing that is the East’s lack of talent. In Round Two, Wittman stares at the Hawks’ movement with a look on his face that says, “I’m trying to pass off my confusion as frustration.” The Wizards lose despite Wall being the best player on the court.
Brooklyn (East, eighth seed)
The Case For:
To believe in the Nets, you have to really, really believe in Joe Johnson. And you have to think that, though the Nets’ players have looked like they no longer enjoy playing basketball for most of the season, it’s a team with a decent amount of talent that finally may be playing to its potential. That potential still doesn’t give them any chance of ever winning a title, but it is good enough for them to win a playoff series in a bad conference.
So why not get excited, Nets fans? It’s not getting any better than this. Not for a long, long, long time.
The Case Against:
All year, Brooklyn has not been a good team, and it is only in the playoffs because six games below .500 is good enough to make the playoffs in the East.
Prediction:
Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez put up nice stats, the Hawks blow by the Nets easily, Lopez leaves in free agency and the Nets take mediocrity to previously unseen heights in 2016.
Dallas (West, seventh seed)
The Case For:
Exactly what people feared might go wrong after the Rajon Rondo trade went wrong. No matter how you twist the numbers, the Mavericks offense with Rondo is significantly worse than it is without him. In Dallas’ loaded conference, that drop is enough for most people to cross Dallas off the list.
While that’s probably fair, this perspective might miss the big picture. The details are that since the trade deadline, Dallas has had an average record and offensive struggles. The big picture is that this is exactly where the Mavs were last year, when they were a 49-win eight seed and somehow took the Spurs to seven in a series that most people predicted to be a sweep. The Spurs proceeded to blow away their next opponents in five, six and five games on their way to the title, so the Mavs’ performance is only more impressive in hindsight.
And unlike last year’s Dallas team, this one actually has some talent outside of Dirk and Monta. Forget Rondo for a second. Adding Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons while losing basically no one is a massive upgrade. Combine that with Head Coach Rick Carlisle as well as Dirk’s recent playoff record, and the Mavs might be a legitimate sleeper.
The Case Against:
The reasons I led in with. The numbers are bad, and everything looks off. Every run of success comes to an end with a thud, and this has the makings of a loud thud.
Prediction:
Dallas puts up more of a fight than people expect in the first round, but it goes down in six against a team that is just plain better.
James Cohan ’17 can be reached at james_cohan@brown.edu.
