Secretary of State Matt Brown has a slight lead over former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse in the race for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Lincoln Chafee '75, R-R.I. Either man would give Chafee a run for his money in November, according to a poll released Wednesday.
Brown has the support of 31 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, while Whitehouse is backed by 25 percent, a 6 percent difference just outside the question's 5 percent margin of error. Whitehouse had led Brown 32 to 16 percent as recently as last September, according to the survey, which was conducted Feb. 4 through Feb. 6 by Professor of Political Science and Director of the Taubman Center Darrell West.
A whopping 44 percent of Democrats say they are still undecided in the Senate race, with the primary still almost seven months away. Long-shot candidate Carl Sheeler received negligible support in the poll.
While happy with the results, Brown is "not taking stuff for granted," said Matt Burgess, the campaign's press secretary.
"Matt (Brown)'s going to keep working hard to earn the support of people in Rhode Island," Burgess said.
Whether Brown can keep his current level of support, West said, "is the $64,000 question."
Brown's "numbers came up because he's been on the air advertising, and Whitehouse has not been advertising," West said. "There's no guarantee his numbers will hold up once Whitehouse starts advertising, and right now Whitehouse has a lot more money."
Mindy Myers, Whitehouse's campaign manager, called Brown's lead in the poll "temporary and artificial."
"Having spent over a million dollars and being on television the past four weeks, it's not at all surprising to see a bump in Brown's numbers," she said.
But Burgess saw it differently.
"I think that this dramatic 20 point movement in the polls can't be explained as the result of a few weeks of television ads," he said. "It's because Matt Brown stands up for what he believes in. It's the kind of politics people are hungry for."
West said Brown will need to raise more money to sustain his advertising blitz, especially once Whitehouse begins running his own ads. Brown had about $480,000 in his campaign fund at the end of 2005 and has made several ad buys since then. Whitehouse had almost $1.6 million on hand at the end of last year.
According to the poll, either Democrat would give Chafee - a moderate Republican seeking a second full term in the Senate - a tight race in the general election. Whitehouse trails Chafee by just six points, 40 to 34 percent, down from a 13-point Chafee lead in the fall. Brown is only two points behind Chafee, 38 to 36 percent, closing the 23-point gap that existed in September. These questions had a 3.5 percent margin of error.
"Rhode Island is a Democratic state and Chafee is facing a very close race with either Democratic candidate," West said. "The best Chafee was able to do was 40 percent, and in an election year that is definitely flashing warning signs for him," he added.
Chafee's campaign manager, Ian Lang, echoed West's remarks on the challenges Republicans face in strongly Democratic Rhode Island.
"I think that the important thing to remember is that there are no easy races for Republicans in Rhode Island," Lang said. "We always knew this was going to be close, but we think that once we set out Senator Chafee's long history of service, voters will do what they've done before and return him to office."
The poll indicated that either Democratic candidate would defeat Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, a conservative who is challenging Chafee in the Republican primary. Whitehouse leads Laffey 44 to 29 percent, and Brown is ahead of Laffey 47 to 24 percent.
"Even Mayor Laffey's most ardent supporters have to be worried about his electability in the general election," Lang said.
Laffey's campaign responded by lashing out at the poll itself.
"Time after time, the Brown University poll has been skewed to the left. It is not surprising then that these Brown University polls never reflect Steve Laffey's true strength," wrote Nachama Soloveichik, Laffey's press secretary, in an e-mail to The Herald.
Soloveichik cited the fact that 41 percent of the poll's sample consisted of Democratic primary voters as evidence of "a dramatic over-sampling of liberal Democrats," and also noted the University's poll from October 2002, which had Democrat Myrth York leading Republican Don Carcieri '65 by seven points a week before the gubernatorial election, which Carcieri won by 10 points.
The poll did not measure support for either Chafee or Laffey in the Republican primary because, according to West, "there aren't many Republicans in the state and no one really knows where the Independents are going to go" in primary voting.
In other Rhode Island races, the poll showed Carcieri with an 11-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty. State Sen. Elizabeth Roberts '78, a Democrat, has a commanding lead over Republican Kernan King in the race for lieutenant governor, 41 to 16 percent.
In Rhode Island's District 2, Rep. Jim Langevin, D.-R.I. easily leads his challenger in the Democratic primary, Jennifer Lawless, an assistant professor of political science and public policy. Langevin has the support of 58 percent of likely voters versus 14 percent for Lawless and 28 percent undecided, with a margin of error of about 7 percent.
