In response to the last few installments of "Tru Story," I've received a few complaints that I make more wise-ass remarks than sports comments. Because feedback only comes from my roommate (no longer a friend after he defended St. Louis' organ-based introduction music), my dad (happy to see the Yankees lose so that I do my work) and my brother, Ross Trudeau '06 (tries to sabotage his own brother with slander), my network of criticism is both small and highly unreliable. But, that's all I have to go by.
Since two-thirds of my feedback is negative and my readership is estimated at between six and six million, I can infer that between four and four million people think I need to change my ways. I give the people what they want: here is my humor-free Eastern Conference preview.
Eastern Conference regular season standings:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Anyone who watched the LeBrons, er, the Cavs almost take down the Pistons in the playoffs last year knows that Cleveland is for real. While it might take LeBron James some more time to cement his status as one of the game's most clutch players, it's hard to argue that he isn't the most unstoppable after watching him dissect the Pistons' defense (apologies to Kobe Bryant). Last season, the entire Cavs roster except for The Chosen One had an off year, and they still won 50 games. The law of averages says Larry Hughes and Anderson Varejao (who missed a combined 80 games due to injury), Damon Jones (who shot 37 percent for the year) and Donyell Marshall (39 percent) will bounce back. The rest of the league should cross its fingers in hopes that that LeBron, still only 21, doesn't get any better.
2. Detroit Pistons - De-Troit-Bask-Et-Ballllll. I love the Pistons, but the fact is they haven't made a wise move in the front office since acquiring Rasheed Wallace in the spring of 2004. General Manager Joe Dumars made a colossal error when he traded Darko Milicic, a young big who can block shots and shoot the ball, in anticipation of re-signing Big Ben Wallace - only to let Wallace walk this summer. Tayshaun Prince is a menace on the defensive end and a true jack-of-all-trades, but he hasn't turned into the star many thought he'd be. Chauncey Billups, Rasheed, Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed and Lindsay Hunter are all a year older and their numbers should slip. Rip Hamilton, a career 32-percent shooter from behind the arc, made 45.5 percent of those shots last year, a feat he is unlikely to match. In addition, the Pistons are due to hit the injury bug - they haven't had any starter miss significant time in the last two years - and an injury to any of the starting five would be devastating.
3. New Jersey Nets - Putting the Nets here has as much to do with a weak Atlantic Division as the team's talent. The big three will be back with similar production, as Jason Kidd has shown few signs of slipping despite getting up in age, Vince Carter will be playing for a new contract and Richard Jefferson is entering his prime. The team's weakness, though, is still its depth. Injuries to newcomers Eddie House and Josh Boone could be costly, but rookie Marcus Williams is a huge upgrade over last year's backup point guard, Jacque Vaughn. The Nets could be an elite team if defensive-minded Jason Collins rebounds from an atrocious year offensively and Nenad Kristic decides to start rebounding.
4. Chicago Bulls - The Bulls are a popular pick to win it all because they finished off last season by going 9-1 and then nearly beat the Heat in the playoffs. Their young guys (Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, Luol Deng, Ben Gordon) are a year older, and the team has added Ben Wallace, shot-blocker extraordinaire Tyrus Thomas and swingman Thabo Sefolosha. Therefore, Chicago should contend for the East title. However, while the two rookies should provide additional depth, anyone who watched Wallace in the playoffs knows he has clearly lost a step defensively, and his ineptitude on offense makes him a liability. While they're both very talented young players, the development of Hinrich and Gordon stalled a bit last season, as the two posted similar numbers in 2005 as they did in 2004. But they're both still young enough to prove they can become NBA stars. The Bulls will win many games by defending, rebounding and hitting lots of long jump shots, but the team will be held back due to the glaring absence of an inside presence on the offensive end and an inability to get to the line for easy points.
5. Orlando Magic - I might have just lost my credibility, but hear me out. After the Magic dumped Stevie "Ruin-Your-Franchise" Francis, Orlando went 16-4 in a 20-game span. The Magic have the only player who can challenge LeBron's claim to being the NBA's biggest freak of nature in 20-year-old Dwight Howard, a quick point guard in Jameer Nelson and the "Serbian Gangster" Milicic, who could lead the league in blocks this year if he gets enough minutes. The Magic have a roster filled with youngsters who should improve (Trevor Ariza, Keith Bogans, J.J. Redick) and veterans to help bring them along (Grant Hill, Hedo Turkoglu, Carlos Arroyo, Tony Battie). Orlando's Achilles' heel will be frontcourt depth, which is thin after Howard and Milicic.
6. Miami Heat - The reason I have the defending champs so low is that the entire team - except for Dwayne Wade and Udonis Haslem - will likely decline in play. Shaquille O'Neal, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams are all at least 30 years old. Wade has likely played more basketball in the past calendar year than anyone in the league - counting the playoffs - and his time with Team U.S.A. Given the way he plays and the number of minutes he gets, he is a prime candidate for a big injury. If Wade stays healthy and the rest of the roster maintains a level of production similar to last year's, then the Heat could rise higher in the East. But don't count on it.
7. Indiana Pacers - After six teams that should all contend for a championship, the last couple playoff spots will be very much up for grabs. Still, the Pacers are no slouch. After trading for Al Harrington and Marquis Daniels, drafting two long, athletic, defensive-minded players in James White and Shawne Williams and making room in the rotation for second-year man Danny Granger, the Pacers will be able to defend as well as get up and down the court for easy baskets. The team's biggest weakness will be outside shooting. Expect opponents to pack it in to stop Harrington and the team's best player, Jermaine O'Neal.
8. Washington Wizards - Gilbert Arenas is one of the most underrated basketball players on the planet. He can beat you by passing the rock (6.1 assists per game), by shooting it (37 percent for three and 82 percent at the line) or by using his lightning-fast quickness (95 speed rating in NBA 2K7). The problem is there isn't much else around him. Antawn Jamison is an efficient scorer and a good second option to Arenas but offers little help defensively or on the boards. Last year, the Wizards made up for his deficiencies with stopper Jarred Jeffries, who signed with the Knicks in the off-season. Jeffries was one of the worst offensive wingmen in the NBA last year, but his contributions defensively will be missed. Washington will get Jarvis Hayes back from injury and added an underrated big in Darius Songalia, but look for the Wizards to struggle to stay at .500 and possibly slip out of the playoffs.
On the cusp: Milwaukee and Boston are in the same boat; both will go as far as their young bigs can take them. For the Bucks, that means Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanaueva need to improve on solid rookie campaigns. For the Celtics, that means Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson need to make the leap from solid contributors to forces in the paint.
Tom Trudeau '09 wants you to read his column. If it is not a success ... he will be execute.
