American League East
How they finish: 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox 3. Blue Jays 4. Devil Rays 5. Orioles
Sipping the Asian Kool-aid: "Dice-K" Daisuke Matsuzaka looks like he's a top-five pitcher in baseball. Meanwhile, Kei Igawa has sneaky stuff that misses bats and could reach 15 wins.
Easy there, killa': Delmon Young will be a star sooner rather than later, but all the talk about batting .300 with 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases is a little bit overblown for a rookie without any plate discipline.
Bold prediction: No member of the Yankees projected opening-day rotation (along with injured Chien-Ming Wang) will have an ERA below 4.00.
Watch out for: Toronto outfielder Adam Lind, Red Sox RHPs Bryce Cox and Clay Buchholz, Yankees RHP Phil Hughes, Devil Rays 3B Evan Longoria.
Huh?: The Rays still need to trade from their surplus of outfielders (Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes, B.J. Upton and Johnny Gomes). The Sox may be overvaluing the closer role by taking Jonathan Papelbon out of the rotation and losing over 100 valuable innings out of him.
Breakout candidates: Orioles LHP Erik Bedard had a 3.10 ERA with close to 9 K/9 in the second half of '06: Blue Jays OF Alex Rios was hitting .330/.383/.585 before the All-Star Break before an injury slowed him down the rest of the season.
American League Central
How they finish: 1. Indians 2. Tigers 3. Twins 4. White Sox 5. Royals
Lucky charms: Too much went right for the Tigers in 2006, with almost everyone playing at or above their expected level of production while remaining incredibly healthy. Meanwhile, the Indians (78-84) were by far baseball's unluckiest team. They outscored opponents by 88 runs.
Bold prediction: Royals 3B Alex Gordon wins the AL Rookie of the Year but doesn't top the production of former Royals 3B-turned-outfielder Mark Teahen. The White Sox finish under .500.
Come back to earth: Jeremy Sowers went 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA after the All-Star Break in 2006, but his alarmingly low strikeout rate (35 Ks in 88 1/3 IP) suggests he was incredibly lucky. Expect an ERA closer to 4.50. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are phenomenal young players, but expect both to see their batting averages decline by at least .20 points given their extremely high batting average per ball in play despite average to below average speed.
Seriously?: The Twins seem not to have learned from last year's mistake of wasting roster spots on washed-up veterans as made evident by their employing Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and sending stud RHP Matt Garza to AAA to start the season.
Watch out for: Indians RHP Adam Miller, Tigers LHP Andrew Miller, White Sox LHP John Danks, Garza, Royals OF/1B Billy Butler.
Breakout candidates: Assuming that Indians' OF Grady Sizemore (.290/.375/.533) probably already "broke out," I'll go with Teahen.
American League West
How they finish: 1. Angels 2. Athletics 3. Rangers 4. Mariners
Photo finish: The Angels are the consensus pick to win the division given their strong farm system and pitching depth in both the rotation and bullpen, but all four teams can legitimately expect to contend.
Bold prediction: Rich Harden makes 30 dominating starts and finishes second in the AL Cy Young Race to Johan Santana. Angels 2B Howie Kendrick wins the AL batting title.
Injury risk: Angels RHP Jared Weaver pitched out of his mind in 2006 with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.03 whip, but he also missed time due to injury and has already experienced bicep tendonitis. Even if he stays healthy, look for Weaver's numbers to take a hit.
Reeaalllly?: The Angels gave 1B Shea Hillenbrand and OF Gary Matthews $60 million to be fringe upgrades.
Watch out for: Angels SS Brandon Wood and RHP Nick Adenhart, Athletics OF Travis Buck and Mariners OF Adam Jones.
Breakout candidates: In his "disappointing" 2006 campaign, 20-year-old phenom Felix Hernandez struck out 176 batters in 191 innings with a 4.52 ERA. Watching Angels 2B Howie Kendrick swing the bat once will be enough to convince you he's going to be a star in the not-too-distant future.
National League East
How they finish: 1. Phillies 2. Mets 3. Braves 4. Marlins 5. Nationals
Bold prediction: Phillies LHP Cole Hamels racks up 200 Ks, 18 wins and takes home the NL Cy Young Award. Ryan Howard doesn't crack 50 HRs. Scott Olsen, not Dontrelle Willis, will lead the Fish in wins and strikeouts.
Sophomore Slump: The young Florida Marlins might seem like candidates to improve on their 2006 season, but don't expect any of their top sophomores such as Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez to repeat their outstanding rookie campaigns.
Reeaalllly?: The Nationals outsmarted themselves last year by not trading Alfonso Soriano at last year's trading deadline and now have little talent at the Major League and upper Minor League levels.
Watch out for: Mets RHP Mike Pelfrey and Braves RHP Tim Hudson.
Breakout candidates: Batting champ Mauer gets all the press, but this could be the season that Brian McCann (.324/.372/.630 after the All-Star Break) establishes himself as the best hitting catcher in baseball. Hamels looks mentally and physically prepared to make the jump to a legitimate staff ace.
National League Central
How they finish: 1. Cubs 2. Cardinals 3. Astros 4. Reds 5. Pirates 6. Brewers
Bold prediction: Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano becomes the first player in history to go 40/40 two seasons in a row. Only one team will finish more than two games above .500.
Someone has to win: Despite all the money that was spent by the Cubs during the off-season, baseball's weakest division doesn't figure to be much better this year.
Huh?: The Cubs foolishly gave Jason Marquis three years and $21 million. The Astros traded two pitchers (Taylor Buckholz and Jason Hirsch) who could each outpitch the players they were traded for (Jason Jennings) for a fraction of the price.
Watch out for: Reds RHP Homer Bailey, Cubs LHP Rich Hill, Astros OF Hunter Pence and Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who was statistically the most unlucky player in baseball in 2006 and looked like Yadier Pujols during his fantastic October run. He is already the game's top defensive catcher.
Breakout candidates: Albert Pujols ... just kidding. Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright has the stuff of an ace to go with excellent command of his curveball.
National League West
How they finish: 1. Diamondbacks 2. Dodgers 3. Padres 4. Giants 5. Rockies
Bold prediction: Giants OF Barry Bonds hits 35 home runs and RHP Matt Cain finishes second in the Cy Young race. 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb won't lead the D'backs in wins.
Young Guns: The NL West features some of the best young talent in baseball, particularly position players, who will ultimately win or lose the division for their respective teams.
For serious?: Brian Sabean now has the made the worst trade of the decade and also the worst signing (Barry Zito) for seven years and $126 bajillion.
Watch out for: D'backs 1B Conor Jackson, OFs Carlos Quentin and Chris Young and SS Stephen Drew, Dodgers 1B James Loney, RHP Chad Billingsley, 3B Andy LaRoche, OFs Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier and catcher Russell Martin, Padres 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, Rockies C Chris Ianetta, SS Troy Tuwolitski and RHP Buckholz and Hirsch.
Breakout candidates: Giants RHP Matt Cain (3.26 ERA, 1.18 whip, .214 BAA and 99 Ks after the All-Star Break) has some of the best stuff in the game and Rockies 3B Garret Atkins (.354/.437/.625 after the All-Star Break) is ready to put his name on the list of best young third basemen.
