The calendar has now turned to October, which means only one thing for baseball fans: it's playoff time. Major League Baseball's postseason kicks off this afternoon.
The first round of the playoffs is the Divisional Series, where the three division winners and the best second-place team from each league play best-of-five matchups. The two remaining teams in each league will meet in the best-of-seven Championship Series. The American League and National League pennant winners then face off in the World Series.
Here is a preview of what we'll see in the first round. If my predictions for the winners end up to be wrong, remember that five games isn't nearly long enough to judge which team is truly superior.
Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)
While the AL East champion Rays did not clinch their division until the final day, both they and the AL West-winning Rangers were clear favorites to make the playoffs by the end of August.
The Rangers' advantage is their pitching. Texas ace Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) posted a 10.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season, the second-best in baseball history. He will be followed in games two and three by C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35), a converted reliever, and Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72), who has revived his MLB career after two years in the Japanese Nippon Pacific Baseball League. If presumptive AL Most Valuable Player Josh Hamilton (.359 batting average, 1.044 on-base plus slugging percentage), recovering from a bruised ribcage, proves healthy, he could make the difference for Texas on the offensive side.
Meanwhile, the Rays have constructed a well-balanced team with an emphasis on speed and defense. Left fielder Carl Crawford (.307, .851) and third baseman Evan Longoria (.294, .879) both enjoyed MVP-caliber seasons, and 2008 postseason hero David Price is the anchor of an immensely talented young pitching staff.
The Rays get all the love from baseball analysts, but I think the Rangers are the team to beat. Texas' projected starting pitchers all match up favorably with their Tampa Bay counterparts, and the Rays do not have an answer to a lineup featuring a healthy Hamilton.
Lee and Price will square off in a battle of aces in game one, Wednesday at 1:37 p.m.
Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)
The Phillies have won the NL pennant two years in a row, so they were preseason favorites to win the NL East. Not so for the Reds, who shocked the baseball world by dethroning the heavily favored St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.
The Reds' surprising offense helped them overcome mediocre pitching and secure a playoff spot. First baseman and likely NL MVP Joey Votto (.324, 1.024), has been backed by former top prospect Jay Bruce (.281, .846), who is finally starting to make good on his potential in right field. Third baseman Scott Rolen (.285, .854) has also provided veteran leadership to the highest-scoring offense in the National League while enjoying a resurgent season at age 35.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia's biggest strength is pitching. While most teams have only one or two sure-thing starters, the Phillies' combination of Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44), Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76) and Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06) gives them three bona fide aces to choose from in the playoffs.
With superior hitting and a higher-rated defense than the Phillies', the Reds are better positioned to win than most people think. Still, it's hard to imagine Cincinnati stringing together multiple victories against three of the best pitchers in baseball.
Reds starter Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31) will take the mound against Halladay at 5:07 p.m. Wednesday.
New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)
The Yankees, this year's AL Wild Card, won the 2009 World Series, and the first step towards defending their title will be a rematch with the AL Central champion Twins, who they defeated in the first round last year.
With an Opening Day payroll of over $213 million, New York is the richest team in the game. Their lineup, featuring second baseman Robinson Cano (.319, .914) and third baseman Alex Rodriguez (.270, .847), is perhaps the best in baseball. But the rotation has been plagued by injuries, inexperience, and plain-old poor pitching.
The Twins, still reeling from the news that star first baseman Justin Morneau (.345, 1.055) will miss the entire postseason as he recovers from a concussion, are led by left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62) and last year's AL MVP, catcher Joe Mauer (.327, .871). They do not have a star-studded depth chart, but have no clear weaknesses on their roster.
Call me crazy, but I don't see New York getting past the first round. The Yankees' volatility makes them much more likely to collapse than the solid Twins, who will show the baseball world that having a strong supporting cast is more important than a few lead actors in the postseason.
Yankees ace CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18) goes up against Liriano Wednesday at 8:37 p.m.
Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)
Both the Braves, the NL Wild Card team, and the Giants, the NL West champions, were contenders all year, but neither was assured of a playoff spot until the last day of the regular season.
Atlanta succeeded this year thanks to arguably the deepest pitching staff in the game, led by young phenom Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33) and returning veteran Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83). Longtime Braves manager Bobby Cox is planning to retire after the season, and much has been made of the team's desire to win the World Series in his honor.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is perfectly poised to make a run at the game's top honor. In "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong," statisticians Nate Silver and Dayn Perry showed that there are only three aspects of the game that correlate with postseason success: good defense, a lights-out closer and a pitching staff that records strikeouts. When using advanced "sabermetric" statistics — FanGraphs.com's Ultimate Zone Rating to measure fielding and BaseballProspectus.com's Win Expectation above Replacement to gauge teams' closers — the Giants are No. 1 among playoff teams in all three categories.
Of course, it's not that easy; these factors account for about 11 percent of postseason success, meaning a whopping 89 percent is about luck. Still, great as it would be to watch Cox ride off into the sunset as a champion, the Giants' mathematical advantage is too big to ignore.
Braves' starter Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00) will face off with Giants' ace Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43) Thursday at 9:37 p.m.
