The nation’s smallest state voted big for Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on April 26, 2016. Winning 54.7 percent of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton’s 43.1 percent, Sanders emerged victorious in Rhode Island’s Democratic presidential primary even as Clinton scooped up wins in many neighboring states. Some Rhode Island political authorities told The Herald that Sanders’ support in the Ocean State today is likely to manifest in another primary victory.
Back in 2016, “Sanders’ victory in Rhode Island was a surprise to a lot of the political scientists who study Rhode Island voters, including myself,” said June Speakman, professor at Roger Williams University. Similarly, a poll released by the Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy had predicted that Clinton would lead Sanders by 10 percent, The Herald previously reported.
Speakman, who is also a Democratic state representative in District 68, which includes Warren and Bristol, added that the Ocean State had long been considered “Clinton Country,” given former President Bill Clinton’s success in the state. “There was an assumption,” said Speakman, “because of (Bill) Clinton’s past history and popularity in the state that Hillary would win easily.”
Sander’s success in the state demonstrated a growing sentiment that voters were not happy with the status quo, said Aaron Regunberg ’12, former state representative and Sanders’ campaign delegate. “It sent a really strong message to a lot of people in the state that Rhode Island voters want bigger, bolder, progressive change.” Such a sentiment persists today, added Regunberg.
Regunberg volunteered with Sanders’ primary campaign in 2016, and Sanders endorsed Regunberg’s ultimately unsuccessful bid to unseat Lieutenant Governor Dan McKee in Sept. 2018.
This year, Ocean State voters will not head to the polls until April 28. While presidential hopefuls have spent little time campaigning in Rhode Island to date, Speakman said that she expects to start seeing the candidates pay more attention to the state after Super Tuesday, March 3, when voters in more than a dozen states will cast their ballots.
Rhode Island’s primary is a semi-open primary, meaning that unaffiliated voters can vote in a party’s primary. This, Regunburg contends, plays to Sanders’ strength in the Ocean State. “His base includes a lot of people who are not ‘true blue’ Democrats,” he added. “They don’t trust the Democratic Party — but they trust Bernie.”
The mass of unaffiliated voters in Rhode Island could create an opportunity for more moderate candidates if they are able to successfully mobilize support, said Tony Simon, a Rhode Island-based political consultant. Given Rhode Island’s late primary date, however, “not a lot of campaigns are spending too much time or resources here right now,” added Simon.
Looking forward to April, Simon said that he thinks “it’s a short period of time to really be able to mobilize a large group of independent voters in this particular election.”
Sanders will likely benefit from already having a campaign infrastructure in place, added Simon. Speakman echoed this prediction, and Regunberg emphasized that Sanders maintains the largest grassroots campaign in the state.
Still, much could change after Super Tuesday. “A lot will depend on what happens in the next couple of weeks as to who (Sanders’) strongest opponent is,” Simon said. Speakman added that “The whole story may change after Super Tuesday.”
None of the four members of the state’s congressional delegation have picked a candidate yet. Governor Gina Raimondo endorsed Michael Bloomberg last month, The Herald previously reported. She now serves as his campaign co-chair. Cyd McKenna left her position as executive director of the Rhode Island Democratic Party to work for Bloomberg’s presidential campaign in late February.
Votes will also be cast in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut and Delaware on April 28. Rhode Island has 30 delegates at stake, of which 21 will be allocated on the basis of the primary results.
