Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey may have his work cut out for him as he tries to wrest the Republican Senate nomination from incumbent Lincoln Chafee '75, according to a statewide survey conducted last weekend by Brown's Taubman Center for Public Policy. The results show Chafee with a 20 percent lead over Laffey, who announced his candidacy Sept. 8.
Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse polled 16 points ahead of fellow Democratic contender Matt Brown, the secretary of state, for the Democratic nomination.
In a possible general election match-up in 2006, the poll placed Chafee ahead of Whitehouse, 38 to 25 percent. Against Brown, Chafee would enjoy a 41 to 18 percent advantage. Both results show that Chafee has extended his lead over Democratic contenders since a similar poll was taken in June.
The poll, which surveyed 449 registered Rhode Island voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
Darrell West, professor of political science and director of the Taubman Center, said he was not surprised that Chafee and Whitehouse emerged as front-runners in their respective primaries.
He also said he views Laffey as "a serious candidate" who could force Chafee into a "very competitive" race.
"I think the key group really is independents," West said. "As of right now, Laffey is running stronger among Republicans and Chafee stronger among independents."
Ian Lang, spokesman for Chafee's campaign, said the results indicate that Chafee is "the contender that has the opportunity to win this seat on the Republican side."
Lang said he was somewhat surprised Chafee has a 20-point lead on Laffey, given that polling data was taken shortly after Laffey's campaign announcement last week. "You would've expected a bounce," he said.
"Obviously, we're going to continue to work hard," he said. "But we're glad that we're winning."
But Michael Guilfoyle, communications director for the Whitehouse campaign, interpreted the results differently, writing in a press release that the numbers are "a telling sign of the precarious and vulnerable situation Senator Chafee now finds himself (in)."
Guilfoyle went on to attack Chafee: "Whether it be Senator Chafee's support for the Bush plan to cut Social Security benefits for the middle class or his waffling when it came time to help Rhode Islanders at the pump, Senator Chafee continues to represent the special interests, not our interests."
Though a year remains between now and the primaries, Lang said the results are "a good indication of where we stand" in relation to both Republican and Democratic contenders.
Matt Burgess, Brown's press secretary, said current polls are too far removed from the election to provide any solid indication of how the public will vote.
"A year off from election day only shows a difference in name identification," Burgess said, adding that he believes Brown's opponents enjoy higher visibility among Rhode Island voters. As the campaign escalates in the coming months, Brown's ability to call attention to central issues will work to his benefit, Burgess said.
Laffey's campaign also downplayed the poll's significance.
"It's not about the polls," said Robin Muksian-Schutt, a spokeswoman for the Laffey campaign. "It's about bringing the message to the voters, which (Laffey) just started doing last Thursday night."
Muksian-Schutt also expressed concern that the poll is "scientifically inaccurate," saying the data offers "no clear distinction" whether respondents are registered Republicans or Democrats. She said she suspects not enough Republicans participated to accurately predict primary results.
