Objective journalists usually abstain from calling elections before all voters have had a chance to cast their ballots. But concerning today's presidential election, pundits and pollsters agree about one thing - Republican candidate Mitt Romney will lose Rhode Island.
Most states are similar to the Ocean State in that their electoral votes are pre-subscribed to a particular candidate based on the state's voting history. Nobody disputes, for example, that Rhode Island is blue a state and Alabama is red. Presidential contenders President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are not competing for these locked-in states, because they have consistently gone to the same party for decades.
Despite Rhode Island's national commitment to the Democratic Party, affiliation at the state level is much more complicated. In fact, Rhode Island has the highest concentration of swing voters - individuals who are not tied to any one party - in the country, according to an article by Micah Cohen on FiveThirtyEight, a New York Times blog.
In 2000, twice as many Rhode Islanders voted for Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore as for Republican George W. Bush, a typical result for a state that has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection bid. But in the 2000 election cycle, Rhode Islanders also reelected then-Republican Lincoln Chafee '75 P'14 to the Senate by a 15-point margin. About a quarter of voters supported both Gore and Chafee, switching party affiliation in the process.
Despite Rhode Island's reputation as a solidly Democratic state, it has elected a number of prominent Republicans to the U.S. Senate and the governorship.
The last time a Democrat won a Rhode Island gubernatorial election was in 1990, when Bruce Sundlun defeated Republican incumbent Edward DiPrete, who was later convicted of bribery and racketeering and served one year in prison. Lincoln Almond took the seat back for Republicans in 1995, and it has not returned to Democratic hands since. Chafee, now an Independent, is the current governor of Rhode Island.
Scott Mackay, political analyst for Rhode Island Public Radio, said he believes Rhode Islanders tend to elect Republican governors as a power check on the General Assembly, which has traditionally remained firmly in Democratic hands. The prosecution of prominent state Democrat party leaders for corruption over the past several decades has led voters to try to balance the party's power in the State House. For example, in 2008, then-House Majority Leader Gerard Martineau received a 37-month sentence after he arranged for votes on legislation that benefited the CVS pharmacy chain and the Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Rhode Island.
In Rhode Island, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans three to one, but the majority of the electorate is unaffiliated. Independent voters can offer the swings Republicans need for an occasional victory, Mackay said. Chafee was elected governor in 2010 with only 36 percent of the vote - enough to secure his election because Republican John Robitaille and Democrat Frank Caprio split the remainder of the electorate, receiving 33.6 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Though the Independent voting bloc trends toward more liberal candidates, it can participate in coalitions with Republicans to counter Democrats, Mackay said.
The high concentration of R.I. swing voters may be due to the state's significant Roman Catholic population, the largest in the country, according to Silver. Roman Catholics, who make up over 50 percent of the Ocean State's population, tend to be less willing to identify with a party than other religious groups. Nationally, the candidate able to garner the Catholic vote has won every presidential election since 1972, an indication of both the voting bloc's power and versatility. In presidential elections since 1972, Americans have elected a Democrat four times and a Republican six times.
Regardless, Republicans have to be moderate to succeed in Rhode Island politics, Mackay said. Elected candidates often favor women's rights and environmental protection, he noted. Rhode Island Republicans have had to distance themselves from the national party, which "has shifted to be more conservative on a national level," he added. Republican John Chafee P'75, who served as governor from 1963-69 and senator from 1976 to his death in 1999, was considered by many to be one of the most liberal members of the Senate, pursuing a pro-choice, anti-death penalty and environmentalist platform during his tenure. His son, Lincoln Chafee, was the only Republican in the Senate to support same-sex marriage.
Though Rhode Island may not be competitive in the presidential election, the state is host to a close congressional race this year between Rep. David Cicilline '83, D-R.I., and Republican Brendan Doherty. This race differs from previous elections because Cicilline is struggling to hold onto Democratic voters, let alone win over Independents.
Cicilline's lackluster support from the party base and difficulty winning over Independents have made the first congressional race a toss-up, though the district is historically Democratic. A WPRI poll released Oct. 30 showed that 74 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Cicilline, compared to 90 percent who will support Obama, meaning Doherty has managed to muster support from 15 percent of Obama voters. The same poll showed Cicilline receiving only 28 percent of support from Independent voters, 13 points fewer than Obama.
Former Republican Representative Ronald Machtley represented the first congressional district in the 1990s, but legislated as a moderate. Before Machtley, the most recent Republican to represent the district lost his reelection bid in 1940.
The Democratic Party took root in Rhode Island at the turn of the century, when labor unions began to form in response to massive industrialization. At the time, Providence was the most industrial city in the country - akin to New York and Boston, Mackay said. At that point, the state was "fairly blue," he added, but very supportive of government activism.
The real shi
ft to the Democratic Party came during the Great Depression when warring immigrant groups put aside their differences and formed unions on the heels of the Wagner Act, Mackay said. The ties strengthened when the state favored 1960s Civil Rights legislation championed by Democrats in Congress.
