The Detroit Pistons were not supposed to win the title last year. The Eastern Conference had no respect from fans, players or analysts. The Lakers had four future Hall-of-Famers in the starting lineup, and the West had won the title every year since the end of the Jordan Era. This season, for the first time in almost seven years, the NBA Playoffs are wide open - there is no dominant conference, team or dynasty. Competition is fairly balanced, some low-seeded teams are streaking and the most dominant player on the planet has swayed the entire balance of power in the league. Here is one man's preliminary analysis of the 2005 NBA Playoffs.
Safe pick: San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are the most experienced, playoff-tested team in the NBA. They don't have to go through Shaquille O'Neal for the first time this decade, and they have the best center in the Western Conference complimented by a supporting cast of All-Stars. What they don't have is assurance that Duncan's right ankle will hold up throughout the playoffs. He injured it on March 20 and has played in only a few games since then. The team's success comes down to whether or not his ankle is 100 percent healed. If it isn't, then watch for...
The center-less beasts of the West: The Phoenix Suns will walk away with the NBA's best record this season after proving your high school coach and his philosophy wrong: Defense does not win games, scoring 110 points per game wins games. The Sonics will walk away being the surprise team of the year and the fourth seed in the Western Conference. Yet neither of them will progress past the Conference Finals unless Duncan is injured. Having the best record in the NBA doesn't necessarily get you anywhere - ask Indiana, as they had a nearly identical record last year (61-21) but got bounced out of the Conference Finals by the eventual-champion Pistons.
One-man shows: LeBron James, Allen Iverson and Mike Bibby may have put their teams on their backs down the stretch run, but the one-man show will never accomplish anything in the playoffs. Bibby lost his inside presence (Vlade Divac to free agency, Chris Webber to trade and Brad Miller to injury), his wings (Doug Christie to trade, Peja Stojakovic to injury) and his backup (Bobby Jackson to injury) and still managed to lead his team to a middle seed in the Western Conference. A.I. and LeBron are leading teams of virtual no-names into the playoffs with amazing performances over the past couple weeks. A.I. has averaged 35.9 ppg and 10.6 apg over the past seven games, while James has averaged 32.8 ppg and 9.6 rpg over the past 10. These single-handed performances, however, cannot make up for the lack of team chemistry necessary for playoff success.
Sleeper: The Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are 31-7 under George Karl, and a ridiculous 24-3 since the All-Star Break. While no one has ever been awarded Coach of the Year after taking over halfway through a season, Karl deserves it. Carmelo Anthony woke up from his early-season slumber, and Andre Miller is playing the best he has in his career lately. They have big men - Marcus Camby and Nene Hilario - and a bruiser in Kenyon Martin. It would not be an upset if the Nuggets reached the Western Conference finals or beyond, and even though they will be seeded sixth or seventh, they are one of the elite teams of the NBA. The only thing going against them? George Karl has never won a title.
Streaker: The Detroit Pistons. Riding an 11-game win streak, they are starting to eerily resemble last year's squad that peaked at the perfect time. At 32-9 in the Palace at Auburn Hills, only the Spurs and Heat have better home records. More importantly, in the past month they have pulled off wins against the Heat, Spurs and Sonics. The hard-nosed Pistons have only gotten better as the season has progressed despite having no superstars. Like last year, they are a defensive squad that plays true team basketball - not as fun to watch, but likely to win. They are currently favored to win the East and overtake my personal favorite for the Championship...
Shaq's team: The Miami Heat. Only so much can be written about him. He is the only man able to change the balance of power in the NBA simply by changing conferences. The Shaq factor works like this: The Lakers have won 20 fewer games without him, while the Heat have won about 15 more with him. Calling the East the "Least" is simply obsolete with his addition to the conference. He is the clear favorite to win the MVP, leading the Heat to the best conference record in the East and the third-best in the league. Yet, somehow the Heat has mysteriously not been a favorite among the analysts to win the title. They have stumbled recently, losing six of their last 10 games, but if Dwyane Wade plays anything like he did last year as a rookie in the playoffs, they should be more than OK. In fact, they should win the championship. I predict that they will.
Marc Lanza '06 lost his inside presence at a young age.
