What could be more valuable to a baseball team than a left-handed hitter who, in September, from the seventh inning on, seems to say whenever he steps into the batter's box, "I am going to hit a home run if you make anything less than a perfect pitch?"
It is undeniable that from this aesthetic standpoint of drama and entertainment value, David Ortiz is the hands-down favorite to win the American League Most Valuable Player award. Due to the conspicuous absence of Barry Bonds, he is considered by some to be the most feared hitter in the game.
However, the award is for the most valuable "player," not the most valuable "hitter," a distinction which can easily be muddled by the fact that anyone, be they Sox fan or Yankee fan, would want Ortiz at the plate with the game on the line.
This much is clear. Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz are having prolific, historic seasons. Rodriguez will likely pass Joe DiMaggio for the most home runs in a season by a Yankee right-handed hitter. Ortiz trails only Jimmie Foxx for most home runs hit in a single season by a Red Sox hitter, righty or lefty. Both sides of this argument can name-drop until they're blue in the face, so let's look at the numbers.
The two sluggers both have 46 home runs this year. Rodriguez holds the advantage with a .321 batting average to Ortiz's .296 and 17 steals to Ortiz's one. Rodriguez also has a higher on-base percentage (.423 to .393) and insignificant advantages in slugging percentage (.608 to .606), runs (118 to 115) and hits (186 to 174).
Ortiz, on the other hand, has a better walk-to-strikeout ratio (98-to-119 to A-Rod's 90-to-135), and has 12 more extra-base hits. He also has driven in 142 runs, 15 more than Rodriguez. From a sabermetric standpoint, Rodriguez's slightly superior on-base plus slugging percentage (1.031 to .999), or OPS, is mitigated by his tendency to strike out more than Ortiz, leaving them in a statistical dead heat.
Proponents of Ortiz explain that despite the remarkably similar numbers, it is Ortiz's ability to come through in the clutch that gives him the edge. They will undoubtedly cite the fact that of Ortiz's 46 home runs, 20 have tied the score or put the Sox on top, and 17 of the 46 have come in the seventh inning or later. Moreover, Ortiz has a season total of 19 game-winning RBIs. Impressive as these stats are, Rodriguez boasts numbers that are almost identical. Of his 46 home runs, 19 have tied the score or given his team the lead, and he actually leads Ortiz in game-winning RBIs with 20.
Rodriguez supporters are quick to point out that he contributes not only with his bat, but also his glove. A-Rod is putting up gold glove numbers at third base, an amazing accomplishment considering it's only his second season at the position at any level, professional or otherwise. He trails only Texas' Hank Blalock in fielding percentage, and went nearly three months without committing an error earlier this season. Recently, he made a diving stop to his backhand side to rob Toronto's Shea Hillenbrand of a game-tying RBI single in the bottom of the ninth, and made a strong throw to second to start a game-ending 5-4-3 double play. Could this be roughly analogous to a game-tying hit? Many say it can be, including famed baseball statistician Bill James.
James' revolutionary methods of statistical analysis include the concept of "win shares." An extremely reductive explanation of this process allows 300 win shares per team, per season, distributed based on statistical performance to the members of each team. This method of determining a player's value takes into account hundreds of factors, including not only his ability to produce runs, but also his ability to take runs away. A good glove in the field will take away more runs than an average glove, just as a good bat will produce more runs than an average bat.
A win share analysis of the season through Sept. 21 gives Rodriguez not only more offensive win shares than Ortiz (29.8 to 29.3), but also 3 defensive win shares (to Ortiz's 0). This isn't to say that Ortiz is hurting his team by not playing in the field, it merely points out that Rodriguez's value, at its most basic level (that is, producing wins for his team), is higher than Ortiz's.
Upon inspection of these statistics, this MVP race is not as close at it looks. In light of their nearly identical offensive numbers, the argument that Ortiz is better than Rodriguez late in the game during the stretch run implies something other than its self-evident meaning: that earlier in the season, and early in games, he's worse. Approaching this from the definition of value that is based on how many wins you help your team achieve over the course of a season, dramatic late-inning and late-season at-bats don't actually mean more than a season-long, game-long steady contribution. This logic, along with an appreciation of defensive value that is so often overlooked in the era of the home run hitter, makes Alex Rodriguez the clear choice for American League MVP.
Contributing writer Ross Trudeau '06 hits and plays the field.
