Okay, so I know the first part sounds a bit crazy, but the way the Yanks' starters have opened the season, they might be in some trouble. Having gone once through the rotation, every one of New York's starting five failed to make it out of the fifth inning. Not to mention that, as of Tuesday morning, the Bombers were 10th in the American League in ERA and 13th in K/BB ratio. Toss in a defense that's been uglier than Joakim Noah (eight errors, tops in the big leagues), and you've got a recipe for disaster.
Contrary to what baseball pundits said prior to this season, the Yankees' starting rotation is not very good. Mike Mussina, the closest New York can get to an ace, pitched well in 2006. But that was a contract year. Mussina's 2004 campaign yielded 12 wins and a 4.59 ERA, and in 2005 he registered just 13 wins with a 4.41 ERA. Expect his numbers to be much closer to these in 2007.
After Mussina, the Yankees' rotation is full of question marks. Andy Pettitte's left elbow is actually trying to escape his skin - we saw it on the Internet, it was gross - and he's coming off a mediocre 2006 season, in the weaker National League, no less. Although Pettitte did have a good second half, his numbers against the American League raise concerns. In four games against AL opponents last year, he allowed two base runners per inning pitched, failing to record a single win. Put Raggedy Andy next to opening day starter Carl Pavano, and you've got an injury prone 1-2 punch whose odds of making it to the end of the season are slimmer than Jessica Alba.
Things are just as bleak at the back end of the rotation. Japanese import Kei Igawa, who had a reputation for making Japanese hitters miss, seems to be just as good at missing the strike zone. Igawa piled up 12 walks to go with his 19 strikeouts during spring training. Matt Clement and A.J. Burnett are perfect examples of just how far good stuff will go in the AL East without the control to back it up.
While Darrell Rasner and his 5.06 career ERA will keep Chien-Ming Wang's seat warm, Yankees fans will eagerly await Wang's return to the hill. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Wang will not repeat his stellar 2006 season, the first of which is durability. The reason why Wang didn't start the fourth game of the 2006 Divisional Series in Detroit was - as Joe Torre later admitted - because the skipper had serious questions about the youngster's ability to throw on three days' rest, based on his history.
Instead of taking a chance with Wang in an elimination game, Torre commited seppuku - Samurai suicide, no lie - and ran Jaret Wright out to the mound. After only one good year, Wang is now expected to be an innings-eater who will give the overburdened Yankee bullpen a breather every fifth day. If the Bombers' infielders keep fielding grounders like they've been rubbing John Kruk's greasy mullet for good luck, things could get slippery for Wang when he returns. It's too much to expect of the kid, and starting the season on the disabled list (hamstring) doesn't exactly foreshadow a repeat of last year's performance.
As opposed to the youth-infused rotations of the Mets and Red Sox, there is a well-defined ceiling with the one through five starters in the Bronx because Philip Hughes was left off the roster. Combine that ceiling with the fact that the rotation isn't that good to begin with, and you have the makings of a pinstriped catastrophe.
Assuming that the Yankees' powerful offense is able to carry them into the playoffs - far from certain in a stacked AL East - I can't see them making it past the ALDS. Championships are won by great pitching, and aside from the Hammer of God - Mariano Rivera - the 2007 New York Yankees just don't cut it. Until Roger Clemens comes back for the 14th time, John Sterling can save his voice this year.
Chris Peterson '07 and Shane Reil '09 rub John Kruk's mullet for good luck before exams.
