Now, I don't want to be a worrisome Walter, but there's a lot more than Sam Adams brewin' in Beantown this September. There is also trouble, in case you didn't get that. Sure, the Sox are headed into the playoffs and currently own the best record in the big leagues, but don't be fooled, they are my odds-on favorite to lose their first round match-up. In all likelihood, Boston will face either Cleveland or Los Angeles in the division series, and neither draw favors the Red Sox.
Why is that, you ask? Well, if I know one thing about playoff baseball, it's that all the cool teams have great starting pitching. Everyone wants it, and if you don't have it, you might as well stay home because you're just going to embarrass yourself anyway.
That being said, both Cleveland and the Angels can boast a legit pair of aces heading into the playoffs. The Indians' C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, with ERA's of 3.15 and 3.27 respectively, have been solid all season and have the stuff to shut down any offense. In a series against Boston earlier this year, Carmona and Sabathia combined for 15 innings, allowing only one run and striking out 13 batters.
Oh, and Fausto and C.C. remind me so much of my Toyota Supra. Not only were they all born in the 1980s, but also all three are totally dependable. Carmona has finished at least six innings in his last 11 starts, while Sabathia has accomplished that task in 29 of his 31 games this season. They have combined for six complete games, more than 24 major league teams.
In L.A., John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar have been sick, each currently sporting 16 wins and an ERA around 3.00. That's two pitchers on one team who have a lower ERA than any of Boston's five starters. Not only that, but Lackey is also one of only three pitchers in the American League (Paul Byrd and Jeff Weaver are the others) who have more than one shutout this season. Escobar always has nasty stuff, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to really dominate. Fortunately for the Halos, this year Escobar hasn't even made a trip to Health Services. No doubt, these two have the potential to take down a short series all by themselves.
Rather than two aces, the Sox figure to limp in with something like Ace-Ten. Make no mistake, Josh Beckett is the Reil deal. His 18 wins is tops in the majors, and he ranks in the top 10 in the American League in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. The kid has been to the show before, and if I remember correctly (ask Yankee fans, they might know) he did quite well.
Unfortunately, besides the young fire-baller, the Sox rotation looks pretty bleak. Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are both old dudes who have battled injuries this season. Schilling's velocity is way down from years past, and it has greatly affected his ability to strike batters out. He only has 92 K's this year, from a guy who has whiffed 300-plus three times in his career. Daisuke Matsuzaka has shown tons of potential, but clearly is not ready for the playoffs. In his last five starts Matsuzaka is 1-4, and his ERA is pushing 10.00. His control troubles have returned, and his strike-out totals are diminishing. Jon Lester has been solid, but not great, and has much more to prove before he can be counted as a reliable playoff pitcher.
It really hurt me to write this, but I gotta be realistic. It's easier that way. The worst thing you can do is limp into the playoffs, and the Sox are doing just that. Manny isn't healthy. The pitching is hitting the skids, and Hideki Okajima is getting tired. Boston's headed into the last leg of the Tour de France on flat tires, and the rest of the contenders in the AL are coming off fresh steroid injections.
Really, I hope I'm wrong. If I'm right, it's OK ... this is why we have the Patriots.
