For some students, headlines and news shows - even Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" - are the only insights into the situation in Iraq and the rest of the international arena. Last night, Brown students were given another look into foreign affairs in the form of retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, an adjunct professor of international affairs at the United States Military Academy at West Point and a nationally recognized national security and terrorism analyst who commanded the 24th Infantry Division during Operation Desert Storm.
McCaffrey delivered the Stephen A. Ogden Jr. '60 Memorial Lecture on International Affairs in Salomon 101 on Tuesday. In his speech, "After Iraq: How the World Has Changed," McCaffrey presented his analysis and observations on the war on terror, the United States' "tools to shape the international environment," the war in Iraq and what he foresees in the future.
He told the audience that he is non-partisan - he has worked for three different presidential administrations, both Democrat and Republican - and views himself as a neutral observer.
America still faces great threats, McCaffrey said in his analysis of the war on terror, especially from "the proliferation of WMD nation states." In the future, McCaffrey predicted, Iran will go nuclear, and the United States will face a terrorist strike.
In the face of these impending dangers, homeland security has "improved immeasurably" since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, McCaffrey said, though he cited the government's response to Hurricane Katrina as an exception. Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf Coast, "may have been the most shameful breakdown in government competence in the municipal, county, state and federal level we have ever seen," he said.
The former four-star general called the situation in Iraq "a mess." Unless there is a significant change, McCaffrey said, the United States will pull out of Iraq within the first year of the next administration - no matter which party wins the presidency.
Despite this prediction, McCaffrey spoke positively of Gen. David Petraeus, the American commander in Iraq, and the soldiers in the armed forces, calling the outcome of the Iraq situation "uncertain" but not hopeless.
Though he said he was supportive of the war in Iraq, McCaffrey called the "concept of going into Iraq ... outrageous" - a remark that received scattered applause from the audience.
His predictions for the future included a dominant U.S. economy, improved relations with China, India, Pakistan and Europe, but tense relationships between the United States and Russia. He also said he thinks North Korea will "come apart" some time in the future and that the United States will have to deal with the death of Fidel Castro in Cuba and a confrontation with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
McCaffrey concluded his talk with a brief question-and-answer period. Though few questions were asked, they addressed military policies both at home and abroad.
One woman asked McCaffrey about military recruiting in high schools. McCaffrey said though recruiters rarely target high schools, the defense of the nation is a "shared responsibility" that falls on both Congress and U.S. citizens.
Arguing further in support of recruiting on college campuses, McCaffrey stressed the benefits of including university-educated "intellectuals" in the volunteer ranks of the armed forces and broader discussions of national security.
Another question concerned Iraq as a breeding ground for terrorists, but McCaffrey rejected this view. He said a small number of terrorists enter Iraq each month, and that it is certainly not a breeding ground.
One student, prefacing his question as "possibly naive," asked the retired general what right the United States has to go into a country unilaterally. America should not act unilaterally, McCaffrey said. "The military should be the last choice," he said.
When asked about what the United States should do in Syria, McCaffrey explained the importance of the states in that area. "The Gulf States are crucial," he said. McCaffrey emphasized the particular importance of Saudi Arabia, he said. The United States must try to "engage the Saudis," he said.
McCaffrey was introduced by Provost David Kertzer '69 P'95 P'98, who protested ROTC - a program McCaffrey supports - on campus when he was a student at Brown. Kertzer said McCaffrey was the first career military officer to deliver the annual Ogden lecture.
