With Selection Sunday just two days away, college basketball’s conference tournaments are in full swing. Here are my thoughts on each conference as we count down the hours.
AAC: It’s not often that the defending national champion is underrated. Somehow, Louisville has managed to escape the national spotlight while compiling a 26-5 record and the second seed in the AAC tournament. The Cardinals return their leading scorer from last season’s championship team, Russ Smith, but preseason expectations were low for the Cardinals, who had lost point guard Peyton Siva and defensive centerpiece Gorgui Dieng to the NBA. More importantly, during the offseason, the NCAA instituted new rules on hand-checking that drastically limited the aggressiveness of on-ball defense. Louisville’s high-pressure defense stood to lose the most from the rule change, which has lowered turnovers across the board. But Louisville’s defensive metrics have remained high relative to other teams. Junior transfer Chris Jones’ playmaking has given Smith some relief in the backcourt, and sophomore Montrezl Harrell has developed into one of the most dominant forwards in the league. Cincinnati, SMU, UConn and Memphis all have a legitimate chance to win, but Louisville has emerged as the clear favorite.
ACC: Virginia has been brilliant all year long. They do not have the individual stars that other elite ACC teams can rely on, but the Cavaliers make up for what they lack in athleticism with smart play. No team is better off the ball than the Cavaliers. Joe Harris is the craftiest offensive player in the country and the rest of the squad seems to have picked up his tricks. They also boast one of the best defenses in the country. But they really do not have the individual talent that Duke, Syracuse and North Carolina possess. Duke has the most skilled players of any team in the conference, possible NBA lottery pick Jerami Grant has returned to Syracuse from an injury and UNC won 12 straight before falling to Duke in its regular season finale. The real surprise would be if fifth-seeded Pittsburgh ran the table. Despite going a mediocre 11-7 in conference play, the Panthers’ scoring margin suggests they have a real chance to win the tournament.
Big 10: This one is up for grabs. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State are all perennial contenders, and this season is no exception. Ohio State’s suffocating backcourt defense props up an anemic offense. This year, Ohio State Head Coach Thad Matta lacks a skilled all-around player like Jared Sullinger or Deshaun Thomas to make his relatively stagnant offensive schemes successful. Wisconsin ranks 325th in the country in possessions per game, which counts as up-tempo for the Badgers. The athleticism of sophomore forward and projected first-round draft pick Sam Dekker has enabled Wisconsin to vary from Bo Ryan’s methodical system. But the real surprise has been junior forward Frank Kaminsky, whose sweet shooting and interior presence has paced the Badgers. Big 10 Player of the Year Nik Stauskas of Michigan leads the conference’s best half-court offense, but the Wolverines have struggled on the defensive end. Despite a bevy of injuries, Michigan State managed to hang on to the conference’s third seed. Now that all of its key players are healthy, it may well be the favorite in the playoffs. Everyone seems to have given up on Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the nation’s darlings early in conference play, having accumulated a slew of wins against mediocre teams on their home floor. Now they have lost five of their last six and have fallen off of the AP poll. But Iowa is the same team it was at the beginning of the year. None of its last five losses were by double digits and all came against solid teams.
Big 12: Even without conference defensive player of the year Joel Embiid, Kansas is still the clear favorite to win the Big 12 tournament. Kansas recently secured its tenth straight Big 12 championship with a 14-4 regular conference season record, and yesterday they removed a major obstacle in beating Oklahoma State. Thanks to a seven-game losing streak, OSU was only seeded eighth in the conference, but you would be hard pressed to find seven more talented teams in the country. In preseason Player of the Year Marcus Smart and senior guard Markel Brown, the Cowboys have the most dynamic backcourt in the nation. The fact that OSU was an eight seed in its conference is unbelievable until you consider the depth of the Big 12 this year. Including OSU, the Big 12 will likely send seven of its ten teams to the big dance. No team has compiled a resume to challenge Kansas as the best team in the conference, but any team good enough for an at-large bid has the potential to steal the conference tournament if a few things break its way.
Big East: Regular season Big East champion Villanova lost in a shocker yesterday to eighth-seeded Seton Hall. Villanova went undefeated in the conference aside from two ugly losses to Creighton, which is now the clear favorite in the conference tournament. Senior forward Doug McDermott is likely to win multiple player of the year awards. His elite post game and shooting spearheads Creighton’s offense, which is the most efficient in the country. Villanova’s big loss improves Creighton’s odds, but the real winner is Providence, who just beat St. John’s to secure the rights to play lowly Seton Hall in the semifinals. The Friars have been on the NCAA tournament bubble all year, but with St. John’s and Villanova out of the way they have a chance to take the decision out of the selection committee’s hands.
SEC: The Florida Gators went undefeated in conference play, but the SEC tournament is not as sure a bet as it appears. Ultra-athletic Kentucky has been in the national title conversation all year. Every Kentucky starter is 6-foot-5 or taller, so it should be no surprise that the Wildcats’ poor overall play has been negated by their rebounding. Kentucky rebounds 42.4 percent of its own misses, the best rate in the nation by a wide margin. But a bigger dark horse looms on Florida’s side of the bracket. Tennessee is the most underrated team in the country. Led by senior guard Jordan McRae and junior forward Jarnell Stokes, the Volunteers have secured the fourth seed in the SEC tournament. Using the team’s scoring differential, I estimated that Tennessee would be expected to win 25 of the 31 games it has played, which would put the Volunteers on par with elite teams like Syracuse. Instead, a season full of blowout wins and close losses has led to a 20-11 record and a precarious perch on the NCAA tournament bubble. If Tennessee’s string of bad luck does not continue, expect it to challenge for the SEC title.
Pac 12: Arizona has played well without injured forward Brandon Ashley and remains the clear favorite to win the conference tournament. The Wildcats’ lack of perimeter shooting is disturbing, but their elite defense and rebounding more than makes up for their scoring woes. No team will come close to being favored over Arizona, but six or seven other teams have an outside shot at winning the conference. Look out for seventh-seeded Oregon. The Ducks stumbled at the beginning of conference play, but that looks like a blip on the radar between going undefeated in nonconference games and winning their last seven against Pac 12 opponents. To win the league, Oregon will likely have to go through the top three seeds: Arizona, UCLA and Arizona State. As it happens, Oregon beat every one of those teams in its seven-game win streak.
Derek Levinson ’17 has been a college basketball prognosticator since birth. If he’s wrong about any of these predictions, complain to him at derek_levinson@brown.edu.
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