As of last Thursday’s clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers, real football is officially back. And for the next five-plus months, it’s here to stay. The hits, the highlights, Al Michaels’ voice. … Is it Sunday yet?
With the start of a new NFL season comes the end of another tumultuous off-season, and the games couldn’t come quickly enough. We needed real football to remind us why we keep patronizing an enterprise that cares more about appearances and legal deniability than player safety. We needed to forget about our ambivalence toward a regime that has presided over both fantastic growth and latent hypocrisy.
Yes, the NFL has its issues. But come Sunday, the electrifying competition is enough to outshine them all. When Aaron Rodgers stared down the Legion of Boom on Thursday, we all forgot about Ray Rice, Josh Gordon and Jim Irsay. Despite its flaws, the NFL is not going away. I wouldn’t trade it for the world.
Without further ado, my 2014 NFL picks:
AFC East:
1) New England Patriots (12-4)
2) Miami Dolphins (8-8)
3) New York Jets (8-8)
4) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
This one’s easy. The Patriots have incredibly won this division 10 times in the past 11 years, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in 2014. An improved secondary highlighted by Darrelle Revis will bulk up the defense, and a healthy Rob Gronkowski should help Tom Brady and the offense bounce back in a major way. Maybe one day, Buffalo.
AFC North:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
2) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7, wildcard)
3) Baltimore Ravens (6-10)
4) Cleveland Browns (5-11)
After a horrendous 0-4 start last year, Pittsburgh’s offense rounded into form and finished with eight wins in its final 12 games. If the offensive line can keep Ben Roethlisberger on his feet, the Steelers should rise again to the top of these standings.
Cincinnati rode an easy schedule to a division title last year, but Andy Dalton’s propensity for shrinking in big moments has prevented this team from joining the ranks of the elite. Still, dynamic offensive weapons A.J. Green and Gio Bernard complement a stout defense that should keep the Bengals in the playoff mix.
AFC South:
1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
2) Houston Texans (9-7, wildcard)
3) Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
The Colts’ unsustainable record in close games last year might portend a reversal of fortune, but this young team’s arrow is still definitely pointed upward. If the Colts can generate some semblance of a rushing attack, the squad’s offense is poised to explode.
After a stellar 12-4 campaign in 2012, Houston fell flat on its face in 2013. Ravaged by injuries and disadvantaged with a brutal schedule, the Texans won their first two games before sputtering to a 2-14 finish. But if Jadeveon Clowney lives up to the bill as a once-in-a-generation pass rusher, he and J.J. Watt will terrorize opposing quarterbacks all year long. If Arian Foster stays healthy and Andre Johnson continues to stave off his career clock, the offense will pack a punch. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can limit turnovers, the team should see improved quarterback play. These are a lot of “ifs,” but the Texans are as good a sleeper pick as any.
AFC West:
1) Denver Broncos (13-3)
2) San Diego Chargers (8-8)
3) Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
4) Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Any way you slice it, Denver enters the season as the AFC’s team to beat. Peyton Manning and the offense shredded opponents all year en route to record-breaking output. Aqib Talib and Demarcus Ware will help bolster the defense. Expect some regression, but the Broncos are still the most dangerous team in the conference.
NFC East:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
2) Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
3) Washington Redskins (6-10)
4) New York Giants (6-10)
Year one of the Chip Kelly experiment in Philadelphia proved one thing: The Eagles’ offense is fun to watch. Kelly will design creative schemes to utilize new toys Jeremy Maclin and Darren Sproles, and the offense will once again exploit the mismatches that Kelly manufactures.
NFC North:
1) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
2) Chicago Bears (9-7)
3) Detroit Lions (7-9)
4) Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
Led by a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will once again mount a challenge for supremacy in the NFC. Despite being stymied in the opener, the Green Bay offense will ignite fireworks. A full year of Jay Cutler is a lot to ask, but if the often-injured and mercurial QB stays healthy, a wildcard berth may be in reach for Chicago.
NFC South:
1) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2) Atlanta Falcons (9-7, wildcard)
3) Carolina Panthers (7-9)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
As always, Drew Brees and the Saints will score points in bunches. The bigger surprises here are Atlanta and Carolina. After a disappointing 4-12 campaign last year, the Falcons will be buoyed by the return to health of wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. Don’t be shocked if this team makes a strong playoff push. The Panthers, on the other hand, should take a step back this season. Their front seven will again excel, but the offense is too devoid of playmakers to win games.
NFC West:
1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
2) San Francisco 49ers (11-5, wildcard)
3) Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
4) St. Louis Rams (5-11)
The cream of the NFC crop, Seattle and San Francisco are both legitimate Super Bowl contenders that employ similar hard-nosed brands of football. In its thrashing of the Packers on Thursday, Seattle’s stifling defense looked every bit primed to defend its title. This rivalry should continue to entertain in 2014. In the end, Seattle claims the division while San Francisco settles for a wildcard spot.
AFC Champion: New England Patriots
Okay, maybe I’m biased. On paper, Denver is the more talented team. But it takes more than talent to win big playoff games, and it’s fair to start wondering if Manning has the playoff gene. The 2013 Patriots were less imposing than any other version in the Brady/Belichick era, and they still caught a whiff of the Super Bowl. This year, rebuilt and reloaded, the Patriots find a way to get it done versus the Broncos.
NFC Champion: Seattle Seahawks
I’m cheating a little bit here, since I had Green Bay as my official pick before the season started. … The Seahawks just looked THAT good last Thursday. Seattle’s defense is far and away the best I’ve ever seen. Even in today’s pass-happy NFL, the Seahawks are here to remind everyone that a tough, physical defense trumps a prolific offense in the postseason. At home, this team looks close to unbeatable.
Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots
Fine, I’m definitely biased. Welcome back, NFL. We’ve missed you. Let the games begin.
Mike Firn ’16 can’t contain his excitement. Calm him down at michael_firn@brown.edu.
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