Yet again, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans are making a deeper tournament run than you might expect given their status as a lowly seventh seed. But do not jump on the bandwagon yet.
Michigan State has not been quite as impressive as a Final Four team should be. It took on a Virginia squad that has not looked the same since Justin Anderson’s injury and was spared from having to play Villanova by an upset. The Spartans had a nice win against Oklahoma but have not won a single tournament game by more than seven points. Not that the team isn’t deserving — its low seed is due mainly to bad luck during the regular season. But the Spartans will be heavy underdogs against Duke.
Unfortunately for Michigan State, the Blue Devils do not present a favorable matchup. Travis Trice is tremendously skilled, but he does not have the athleticism to challenge Duke guards Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook. Matt Jones has come up big for Duke over the last few games, and I expect he will play heavy minutes on Saturday to neutralize Denzel Valentine, who has the potential to bully Duke’s other perimeter players.
Branden Dawson has been the X-factor for Michigan State all year. The senior power forward plays physically and racks up blocks and steals for a team that has had trouble forcing turnovers all year. Much will be made about Dawson’s experience if he outplays Duke freshman Justise Winslow, but Winslow is likely to have the advantage. Winslow is similar to Dawson but a bit bigger and more athletic — and with an outside shot to boot.
Michigan State vs. Duke will be great, but if you can only watch one game this weekend, make sure it is Kentucky vs. Wisconsin. If Kentucky wins out, it may be considered the greatest college basketball team ever, and some have already proclaimed its defense the best in college history. Either claim could easily be true, but Wisconsin’s offense is even more of an anomaly.
Based on stats from KenPom.com, the Badgers are about three points per game better than any other team since advanced stats have been recorded. To put that in perspective, a three-point edge gives a team roughly double its opponent’s odds of winning. Wisconsin definitely has the firepower to take down the Wildcats. They also have a good matchup — or at least as good as anyone can have — against Kentucky’s mammoth roster.
All of Wisconsin’s starters can play on the perimeter, which should drag Kentucky’s big men away from the basket, much like Notre Dame did in the Elite Eight matchup. But unlike Notre Dame, Wisconsin is big enough to bother Kentucky on defense. Frank Kaminsky lacks the strength and Sam Dekker lacks the skill to be good post defenders, but just being the same size as Kentucky’s front line is more than most teams can boast. At 6’8,” Nigel Hayes is a bit undersized for this battle of giants, but he has fantastic lower-body strength and post skills and will likely be called upon to guard Kentucky’s biggest threats on the block.
The frontcourt battle is likely where this game will be won, but we have been talking about Kentucky’s size and athleticism all year. What is more notable at this point is the one player who does not fit that description.
At 5’9” and 155 pounds, point guard Tyler Ulis is shorter than anyone in either team’s starting lineup by seven inches. Kentucky coach John Calipari has long favored big players — especially big point guards — but made an enormous exception in recruiting the diminutive Ulis. Because of his stature, Ulis cannot see over defenses or muscle into the paint like Kentucky’s other guards, so Calipari has designed a different offense for the team when Ulis is on the floor.
This might seem like more trouble than it is worth, especially given that Ulis does not crack Kentucky’s starting five. But Ulis makes up for his height with brilliant court awareness and poetic footwork. To negate his size disadvantage, Ulis has invented moves that I have never seen before.
But Ulis’s importance goes beyond his talent. He and Devin Booker are the only above-average shooters on Kentucky. Wisconsin likes to play a very passive defense, which allows semi-contested three-pointers. That style is perfect against Kentucky’s athletic starting lineup but will be less effective against Ulis and Booker. The two players will be crucial tools for Calipari when the Wildcats’ spacing is too tight. It just might be the 5’9” guard who wins the game for his team of seven-footers.
Derek Levinson ’17 is 6’2”, but John Calipari didn’t recruit him. Commiserate with him at derek_levinson@brown.edu.
