Somewhere, Bud Selig is grinning like a Cheshire cat. Once again, the eight-team playoff system implemented by baseball's commissioner produced a final month of the regular season to remember, as three of the eight postseason spots were not decided until the final week. With that craziness over, it's time to focus on the four Division Series, which kick off today at 4 p.m. as Boston opens at Anaheim.
Particularly after the Marlins' improbable run to the World Series last year, this year's playoff teams all could make a similar run. To help you sort through 162 games' worth of storylines, here's what you need to know before immersing yourself in baseball's second season.
Boston vs. Anaheim
A series featuring three MVP candidates and two of the most powerful offenses in the American League will come down to pitching, believe it or not. Anaheim is led by American League MVP frontrunner Vladimir Guerrero, while Boston has the Dominican Duo of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Guerrero outperformed Ramirez and Ortiz down the stretch, but with Garret Anderson hampered by injury and Jose Guillen suspended for the year, Guerrero and the Angels will have a tough time keeping up with the Sox.
Boston has a clear advantage in starting pitching, led by Curt Schilling. The Angels don't have a starter to counter Schilling, as their only starter with an ERA under 4.00, Kelvim Escobar, pitched on Saturday and won't be available until Game Four.
The Angels counter with the best bullpen in baseball, led by Francisco Rodriguez, Troy Percival and Brendan Donnelly. With such a strong bullpen, late-game leads are almost assured Angels wins.
The Sox edged the Angels 5-4 in the season series, highlighted by a three-game sweep by the Sox in Anaheim late in the season. The two teams were the hottest in baseball, both involved in close division races as well as racing each other for the AL wild card. If the Sox get production early from Ramirez and Ortiz, their superior starting pitching should give Boston's bullpen enough of a lead for them to pull it out.
Bernie Gordon's prediction: Sox in five.
Minnesota vs. New York
While the Yankees' strengths and weaknesses are well documented, as usual, the Twins remain relatively hidden from public eye despite having the best pitcher in baseball on their starting staff. Johan Santana, pronounced "awe-some," will almost certainly win the Cy Young Award this year, and the Yankees will have to face him in Game One and once more if the series is not a sweep. Santana's second-half tear is highlighted by a 1.21 ERA after the All-Star Break, stats to lead the American League in every major statistic but wins, and a run of 21 straight quality starts that ended on his final start of the season. Brad Radke is the Twins' second starter, a pitcher who finished fourth in the AL in ERA.
But few believe that the Twins will win without Santana winning two games - Radke doesn't have overpowering stuff and may be frustrated by the patient Yankee hitters, and third starter Carlos Silva is a guy the Yankees can certainly handle. MVP candidate Gary Sheffield's band of brothers, i.e. the Yankees offense, was simply a juggernaut in 2004. Aside from putting up runs, the team tied (with the Twins) for the fourth-fewest strikeouts in the AL and is versatile overall. Factor in past postseason experience, Mariano Rivera in the bullpen and home field advantage, and it's unclear who has an advantage.
The fact is that Santana got the Twins to the playoffs; if he falters, it could be tough going for a Twins team that scored fewer runs than any AL playoff team. But if he doesn't, it will be up to the Yankees' shaky three-man rotation to keep them in it.
Eric Perlmutter's prediction: Twins in five.
Los Angeles vs. St. Louis
This series features two teams that couldn't have been farther off people's radar screens to begin the season. Each team got to October in its own way: St. Louis bull-rushing all that stood in its way en route to baseball's best record, and Los Angeles never quitting with 50 come-from-behind wins, 26 of which came in its final at-bat.
The St. Louis lineup is scary good - it reads like a list of poisons, as MVP candidates Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds lead the way. The Cards can win with the long ball and play small ball, field well, run the bases well and hustle. They have both solid starting and relief pitching, and have one of the better managers of our time in Tony LaRussa. They're a lot like the 2001 Seattle Mariners in that regard - after a great regular season, the Mariners fell flat in the American League Championship Series, rendering their record-breaking season completely moot. St. Louis has immense pressure not to do the same, which may be the biggest challenge the Cardinals have to overcome.
As for the Dodgers, they have more intestinal fortitude than any of the other postseason teams. They don't quit, as their comeback wins against the Rockies and Giants this week proved. In order to keep it close, L.A. will have to pitch much better than it did during the regular season, particularly starters Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez and Kazuhiro Ishii, if they want to get the ball to Eric Gagne. As for their offense, Adrian Beltré and Steve Finley will have to match the sluggers from St. Louis, while Cesar Izturis and Milton Bradley have to get on base in front of them.
Los Angeles has gutted it out through the season, particularly during a pulse-pounding stretch run in the National League West. But right now, St. Louis doesn't look like anything remotely resembling a choke-prone team. Maybe the Dodgers can steal a game, but anything more than that would be a complete surprise.
Chris Mahr's prediction: Cardinals in four.
Houston vs. Atlanta
If history does repeat itself, the Braves will beat the Astros in the playoffs for the fourth time since 1997, but sometimes history has nothing to do with playoff performance (see Florida Marlins of 1997 and Red Sox circa 1914). This time, the Astros may have a few more things on their side, but the Braves do have resiliency and "the chop."
Right now the Astros are on a tear, having won 36 of their last 46 games and 18 in a row at home. But the Braves - yes, the Braves - are the surprise team of the playoffs, which can make them dangerous. Statistically, both teams have similar offensive production, with the Braves spreading out the runs a little more than the Astros.
Toss ERAs, records, second-half records, etc. into the mix, and you'll get a pretty nice match-up between these two teams - that is, if their rotations stay healthy. At age 42, Roger Clemens is still the Rocket, especially in the playoffs, and Mike Hampton has had substantial success against the Astros. John Smoltz continues to be stingy on the mound, which will be key if the Braves' starting staff and relief can keep the Astros' five 20-plus home run hitters inside the park.
This year may be the one when the Astros win their first playoff series ever (no, they did not win as the Houston Colt .45s); however, home field will be the advantage.
Ian Cropp's prediction: Braves in five.
