Former U.S. Ambassador James Lilley spoke about "The Future of U.S. Diplomacy in East Asia" Sunday evening in MacMillan 117, concluding the five-day "Strait Talk" symposium on the future of relations between the United States, China and Taiwan. Lilley said the trend in relations between the three countries is positive, despite frequent disagreements.
Lilley was director of the American Institute in Taiwan from 1982 to 1984 and has served as U.S. ambassador to Korea and China. About 50 people attended his lecture, including 15 delegate students and the symposium's steering committee.
Lilley said Chinese armament and propaganda campaigns are clearly aimed at the United States, and Chinese doctrine sees the United States as "standing in the way of their manifest destiny."
Lilley said the 1980s were characterized by "shifting tectonic plates" in relations between the United States and China, and therefore with Taiwan, as the United States recognized the People's Republic of China. Meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders led to the "first beginning of American cooperation in the modernization of China," he said.
Now, "the whole formula is beginning to change again," Lilley said about the current relations between China and the Bush administration. "Relations with China have been better" and the United States has invested both time and capital in China, he said. But China continues to dismiss U.S. concerns of its over-armament and weapons programs, while the United States denies its military capabilities encircling China, from Japan to India, through Taiwan, the Philippines and Singapore. "I call this the waltz of the hypocrites," Lilley said.
The United States' relationship with Taiwan has generally been good, as illustrated by President Ronald Reagan's own words to Lilley when he was appointed to the American Institute in Taiwan: "Young man, I want you to know one thing: I like those people." The U.S. government now helps Taiwan with the acquisition of an advanced arsenal - "this is to make Taiwan its own first line of defense against China," Lilley said.
China and Taiwan's own coexistence has evolved through an "incredibly dynamic economic relationship." Twenty-three percent of Taiwanese exports are sent to China, making it Taiwan's largest importer, supplanting the United States. Likewise, 20 percent of Chinese foreign investment goes toward Taiwan.
But the national consciousness of both countries carries the stigmas of 50 years of atrocities: The 1958 confrontation is "not forgotten by the PRC," Lilley said, and the Taiwanese have been used to "a very sorry and drastic exchange with China."
"You can't deal with the future until you analyze the lessons of history," Lilley said. "I think one has to realize the brutalities of the earlier struggles," he continued, in order to understand the socio-historical patchwork of modern China. Its relations with the United States and Taiwan can only be considered in light of the 1949 Revolution, the Boxer Rebellion, the Cultural Revolution and other historical events, Lilley said.
As for the future, "China looks at us as essential in reforming their financial system. I think we can play a very constructive role," Lilley said. But he said there remains a "real gap in understanding" concerning the issue of human rights between China and the United States.
As the lecture drew to a close, an audience member asked: "Can the world accommodate both major powers - the U.S. and China - in the future?" Lilley, running late, simply answered: "Yes."
