Even though college basketball's Selection Sunday is still more than a week away, it's never too early to start thinking about those March Madness bracket pools. After all, the calendar now reads March - if only March 2. So without further delay, here are some not-very-insiderish, but hopefully useful tips for you non-experts in bracketology to follow when you're filling out those brackets.
Beware of the chalk...In other words, don't pick the better seeds to win all the games. I think even most casual college basketball fans know better than to pick all the No. 1 seeds to make it to the Final Four. After all, since 1985 - when the tournament was expanded to 64 teams - never have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. But even picking three number ones to make it that far is risky. Not since 2001 have three top seeds advanced to the tournament semifinals. Your best bet for the Final Four is to go with two No. 1 seeds and then some combination of twos, threes and fours for the last two spots.
... and pick some upsetsThe NCAA tournament is incredibly unpredictable. Who could have guessed that George Mason University - a No. 11 seed - would make the Final Four last year? (Actually a few people did: 1,853 out of more than 1.5 million people who entered ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge.) That anything-can-happen atmosphere is part of what makes March one of my favorite times of the year. Other than the NFL Draft weekend of course. I mean, what could be better than listening to Mel Kiper Jr. for 48 straight hours?
What this extreme unpredictability means is that you'll never have a shot at winning your dorm pool if you don't pick a bunch of upsets. Your odds of predicting most of the bracket right are pretty small.
You could play it safe and go with a "chalky" bracket that will likely place you in the middle of the pack. But you're not paying five or 10 bucks to finish with a mediocre bracket - you're in this to win. You can maximize your chances of getting more games right than everyone else in your pool if you pick several upsets. In the first round, a couple of 10 seeds over seven seeds and maybe an 11-over-6 are good bets. But don't limit yourself to picking upsets in the first round only.
For the truly adventurous, consider picking a No. 4 or No. 5 seed to make it to the Final Four. Now, if you've had my luck the last few years, your fifth-seeded pick will get knocked out in the first round. But if you select the right team, say hello to a few hundred big ones. This year, keep your eyes on Vanderbilt University, which knocked off the defending national champion and then-national No. 1 University of Florida two weeks ago.
Hate DukeI know this tip might seem relatively insignificant and that my friends in Durham might give me some heat for it, but the zealous Duke-hater in me just has to rub this one in: Duke University, currently in the midst of a five-year title drought, has a habit of flaming out in the Big Dance. Last year, even as a heavily favored No. 1 seed that was ranked first in the nation for most of the season, the Blue Devils failed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen.
This year, in what even the Cameron Crazies concede is a rebuilding year (also a nice excuse for bad losses), Duke is only a shadow of its former J.J. Redick- and Sheldon Williams-led self. Right now, Duke has a mediocre 8-7 conference record good enough for sixth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and last month it fell out of the Top 25 for the first time since the 1995-1996 season.
With no go-to guy on their roster, there's no way the Blue Devils can perform any better in the tourney, when the pressure is really on, than they did in the regular season. The bottom line is don't pick Duke to go deep into the tournament. I guarantee you that you won't win any money if you do.
Alex Mazerov '10 thinks he could score almost as many points against Duke as Gilbert Arenas. He wouldn't even think about passing.
