For months, the candidates vying to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., have plied Rhode Island's first district with campaign advertisements, get-out-the-vote operations and policy proposals to get Rhode Island's economy back on its feet. But a bruising battle among leading Democrats threatens to upend the race just as voters get ready to choose among the contenders — Democrats David Cicilline '83, Anthony Gemma, Bill Lynch and David Segal and Republicans John Loughlin and Kara Russo — in today's decisive primary.
As voters go to the polls here and across the country, they will pick party nominees for a midterm election that will determine whether President Obama's party can hold on to the sweeping gains made in 2008. Voter turnout will be key for candidates in R.I., where the Sept. 14 primary will mark the end for many and, due to the state's Democratic leaning, a presumptive general election win for others.
A bloody primary battle
Providence Mayor Cicilline has led the contest for the first district's congressional seat in fundraising and poll numbers, but a recent rough-and-tumble turn to the race could threaten his frontrunner status.
Cicilline, the endorsed Democrat in the race, admitted last Wednesday to receiving mistaken pay raises that increased his compensation to $132,652, thousands of dollars more than the $125,000 mayoral salary to which he is entitled. The mayor, who alleges the extra compensation only came to his attention after a review by the city's internal auditor, has returned the city nearly $20,000 as well as a $5,300 longevity payment, according to a Sept. 11 article in the Providence Journal.
The pay error has made conversations about the race for Kennedy's seat "a little more complicated," according to Victor Profughi, Rhode Island College professor emeritus of political science and head of the polling firm Quest Research.
The compensation issue and the initiation of negative campaign advertisements targeting Cicilline's record as mayor by businessman Anthony Gemma could hurt Cicilline, though it is unclear how severe the damage will be, Profughi said.
While Cicilline has led the pack in fundraising with $171,410 raised since July 1 according to the most recent campaign filing, Gemma has contributed over $200,000 of his own money to finance his candidacy. Gemma's message has gone negative in recent days, bashing Cicilline for the pay raise and calling Cicilline "quite possibly the most ineffective mayor in the city's history" in a hard-hitting 60-second radio spot.
"I think what's most interesting about the race is that at this very late stage in the game, the outsider, the non-politician, seems to be making the strongest charge against the frontrunner," said Wendy Schiller, Brown professor of political science.
Last Thursday, Gemma sent a letter to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen, D-M.D., asking him to request Cicilline's exit from the race due to "patterns of deception, misconduct and dereliction of duty" that Gemma argues could confer an advantage to a Republican opponent.
But Gemma's own financial dealings have not been entirely free of controversy. While Gemma served as president of his family's company, Gem Plumbing & Heating, the business was cited for 32 labor violations, many stemming from employing unlicensed plumbers.
Still, Gemma continues to tout his achievements as a businessman and argues that he is "the only candidate in the race who's created hundreds of sustainable jobs," according to Dan Mercer, his campaign manager.
Legacy of an election
When Patrick Kennedy was first elected to Congress in 1994, voters were angry.
Spurred by anti-incumbent fervor and dissatisfaction with a president whose approval ratings hovered below 50 percent, voters overwhelmingly picked Republicans in races across the country, catapulting the G.O.P. to majorities in both the House and Senate.
While Rhode Island's Democratic roots may insulate it from the more full-throated two-party competition convulsing the nation's heartland, the first district candidates must contend with the legacy of an heir to a storied political family and look to craft their own narratives as voters go to the ballot box to pick Kennedy's successor.
Chances of a Republican resurgence in the first district may hinge on the margin by which Cicilline wins the Democratic primary, according to Schiller.
"If it's very close and he shows any kind of weakness, then the Republicans might say to themselves ‘I think we have a shot to pick up this seat, let's put some more money into the race,'" Schiller said. But a Republican win would still be difficult due to the district's demographics, which heavily favor Democrats, according to Schiller.
As for Kennedy's legacy, it might also play a role in the race, but mostly due to voters seeking a candidate with the experience to advocate effectively for the Ocean State, a preference that could benefit Cicilline, Schiller said.
This midterm election, however, may be notable not just for the legacies that shape it, but also for those it leaves behind, especially for the Brown students who volunteered for candidates in the race.
Segal campaign field organizer Sam Adler-Bell met the state legislator while organizing for Brown's Student Labor Alliance, a student organization for which Segal has been a consistent advocate, he said.
"I think he's been a leader on really every issue that progressives and students care about," Adler-Bell said. "I think the reason a lot of Brown students have been excited about getting involved in his campaign is because his values are really in line with ours and because he's been such an accessible and helpful ally to so many student groups at Brown."
Adler-Bell also drew a parallel between the candidacies of Segal and Democratic mayoral contender Angel Taveras, who are "the very obvious progressive candidates" and whose races have generated significant excitement among Brown students.
